Hubris - L'orgueil.


Thoughts in Darrick Wood by Trevor Morgan 28 May 2020 (traduction française ci-dessous)



No-one and no artificial intelligence model can predict the future. It is impossible to factor random events into calculated predictions. The three-dimensional gaussian cupola algorithms used to calculate the yield from financial derivative products failed. Hence, we had a financial crash in the years 2008 and 2009. Nearly everyone believed that the good times would go on and on. They did not learn from the financial crashes of the past and disaster happened, possibly as a result of hubris.

Likewise, the best way of predicting what could happen in a pandemic is to learn from the past. Of course, few learn from history and the mistakes made, and this is how the human species gets itself into severe trouble. Luckily, we have nearly always found a way out of a crisis but thousands or millions have had to suffer. We might not be so lucky next time.


https://www.wired.com/2009/02/wp-quant/

http://blogs.lesechos.fr/paristech-review/le-mea-culpa-des-maths-a-la-a4057.html

Pensées dans Darrick Wood par Trevor Morgan 28 mai 2020


Personne et aucun modèle d'intelligence artificielle ne peut prédire l'avenir. Il est impossible de factoriser des événements aléatoires en prévisions calculées. Les algorithmes de coupole gaussienne tridimensionnels utilisés pour calculer le rendement des produits financiers dérivés ont échoué. Par conséquent, nous avons eu un krach financier au cours des années 2008 et 2009. Presque tout le monde croyait que les bons moments allaient durer indéfiniment. Ils n'ont pas appris des krachs financiers du passé et une catastrophe s'est produite, peut-être à cause de l'orgueil.


De même, la meilleure façon de prédire ce qui pourrait se produire lors d'une pandémie est de tirer des leçons du passé. Bien sûr, peu de gens apprennent de l'histoire et des erreurs commises, et c'est ainsi que l'espèce humaine se retrouve en grande difficulté. Heureusement, nous avons presque toujours trouvé un moyen de sortir d'une crise, mais des milliers ou des millions ont dû souffrir. Nous ne serons peut-être pas aussi chanceux la prochaine fois.

http://friendsofdarrickandnewsteadwoods.co.uk/



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